South Africa Just One Step from Qualification: What’s Needed to Secure a Spot in the World Cup?

The South African national team is close to qualifying for the World Cup for the first time in 16 years. As the qualifying tournament approaches its end, much hinges on Bafana Bafana. Here are the scenarios for the team to secure a spot in North America.

South Africa could clinch their World Cup place as early as matchday eight of the qualifiers. To achieve this, they must defeat Nigeria, while Benin must lose points against Lesotho in the other match.

There’s also a chance South Africa can qualify even if they draw with Nigeria. For this to occur, Benin needs to lose to Lesotho. In FIFA qualifiers, goal difference is key, not head-to-head results, and Bafana Bafana currently have the edge (+8 compared to Benin’s 0).

For Benin to pass South Africa, they would need a win, while South Africa would have to lose both remaining matches by a total of eight or more goals. Given that Bafana Bafana have conceded only five goals in the qualifiers and Benin have scored just seven, this scenario seems unlikely.

A loss to Nigeria, along with a Benin win, would place Bafana Bafana in a tough situation. South Africa would still have 16 points, while Benin would rise to 14, and Nigeria would have 13. This would push the decision for World Cup qualification and playoff spots to the October international window.

These scenarios are further complicated by the ongoing uncertainty regarding the South Africa vs Lesotho match, where Bafana Bafana fielded an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena. The regulations suggest the team should receive a 0-3 technical defeat and lose three points, but no official ruling has been issued yet.